How to solve the overall shortage of power in the future| Power war ①

2021-10-05 打印
According to incomplete statistics, more than 20 provinces, cities and autonomous regions have introduced measures to stop and limit power supply. Including the three northeastern provinces, which have been oversupplied for a long time, have begun to restrict the power consumption of industry and Commerce and even residents, and the national power situation is facing unprecedented challenges.

With the arrival of the heating season in northern China, the seasonal demand for electricity and gas has increased significantly. At the same time, the international natural gas price soars, and the relationship between power supply and demand may become more tense.

In the past decade, the contradiction between power supply and demand broke out nationwide for the first time, and the situation should be more serious after winter. Is there any short-term mitigation and medium and long-term solution to the energy tension?

1、 What is the background and reason of this power problem?

The power cut, shutdown and shutdown have nothing to do with the "conspiracy theory", "trade war", "financial war" and other "big chess" spread everywhere on the Internet.

In terms of supply, coal supply has decreased significantly.

According to incomplete statistics, first, after the implementation of supply side reform during the 13th Five Year Plan period, a total of 5500 coal mines have withdrawn from the country, and the elimination of "backward" production capacity has reached 1 billion tons / year, while the increase of advantageous production capacity in the same period is limited; Second, all coal mines in mining are forced to reduce production capacity, including reducing mining days and daily mining time; Third, in recent years, many coal mines have been forced to stop production and work because of problems such as failing to pass the environmental protection and safety inspection; Fourth, the total amount of imported coal has decreased in the past two years, especially from Australia. At the same time, the export volume of Mongolia, Indonesia and other countries has been reduced.

In addition, renewable energy has been dragging its feet for the same period. The water in the abundant water period is not abundant, and the wind power is not strong enough. The price of PV modules suck up and cannot take up the task in the short term.

From the perspective of demand, the supply chain has not yet fully recovered in the course of COVID-19. As a global manufacturing power, China has to cope with the surge of global manufacturing orders, and the demand for electricity has increased.

In addition, the epidemic situation in China has been effectively controlled, local investment projects have been gradually implemented, some high energy consuming industries have been put into operation, and the power demand has increased by 10% - 15% over the same period last year.

From the market point of view, the imbalance between supply and demand in the coal market has led to the rapid run of coal prices all the way. The relevant senior management has paid attention to it, and has convened mainstream coal enterprises for "window guidance" for many times. The market has been fine tuned for a short time, but the coal price has no downward trend. High coal prices have already led to comprehensive losses for power generation enterprises. Power generation enterprises have various subjective and objective reasons to start less and generate less power. The contradiction between the market coal price and the planned electricity price has long begun to appear. The relevant departments have not made a decision, and even broke out recently.

From the perspective of policy, after the introduction of the "double carbon target", some localities implemented it too much, "one size fits all", and restricted coal production regardless of the actual situation; In addition, recently, the national and local "dual control of energy consumption" schemes have been introduced one after another. Switching off and power rationing has always been the simplest and most effective method. It coincides with the power shortage in the national market. The "dual control of energy consumption" has become a "back pot man", and the relevant departments and policies have been questioned.

Internationally, due to the serious impact of the epidemic, the production of major coal exporting countries is limited and their exports decline; Major oil producing countries still strictly control production. Although the demand is far from reaching the pre epidemic level, the oil price has exceeded the pre epidemic level; Affected by relevant factors, the supply and demand of natural gas is unbalanced, and the price of natural gas soars (); In addition, the Biden government promoted the "green revolution", and the US dollar was over issued, pushing up the global energy price, causing artificial tension, and the superposition effect radiated the Chinese market.

2、 Is there an early warning of the tense and rapid spread of the power situation?

The large-scale power shortage across the country is certainly not a day or a place. The early warning has long been prompted, but it has not attracted attention. The imbalance between global energy supply and demand, coupled with the shortage of domestic coal market, price distortion, quickly responded to the domestic power market and spread the power cut-off to the whole country.

First, power rationing, which has not appeared for more than a decade, has appeared sporadically in some provinces and cities last winter and this spring, such as Zhejiang, Guangdong and other places, but has not attracted great attention.

Second, after 2019, the spot price of thermal coal once exceeded 600 yuan per ton, and 600 yuan per ton is roughly the breakeven point of thermal power enterprises. If the price exceeds the equilibrium point for a long time, the production enthusiasm of power generation enterprises decreases. When it exceeds 1000 yuan per ton, power generation can only rely on conscience and responsibility, and long-term losses cannot face the relevant performance assessment of SASAC. When the price of power coal exceeded 600 yuan per ton, we were just "window guidance" without actually liberalizing the policies and actions on the supply side. Even, the policy and implementation are in the opposite direction, further deteriorating the coal supply capacity.

Third, the global epidemic is rampant, the exports of traditional coal exporting countries are reduced, coupled with the deterioration of relations with Australia, the main coal importing country, the overall import is limited, and the domestic production capacity is not supplemented in time.

Fourth, the Biden government launched a carbon emission war, on the one hand, suppressing new investment in traditional energy to make room for renewable energy; On the other hand, the currency has greatly "released water", and "OPEC +" is happy to see its strategy, properly control the scale of oil and gas production, and the global oil will soon rise back and exceed the pre epidemic price. At the same time, due to the influence of various factors, the off-season of global natural gas is not light, and the price soars. For a large oil and gas importing country such as China, it will pay hundreds of billions of dollars more for import every year, resulting in heavy losses. The synergy, squeeze and superposition effects of the soaring global energy prices on China's coal market have been underestimated by relevant departments.

3、 Will electricity and natural gas become more tense after winter?

Undoubtedly, after winter, the demand for electricity and gas in the north will surge, and the contradiction between supply and demand of electricity and gas will become more prominent.

In recent two or three years, through the strong promotion and layer by layer overweight of "coal to gas" and "coal to electricity", the basic transformation of small coal furnaces in the North has been completed. The "coal is coal" has no support, only "electricity is electricity" and "gas is gas". New energy has not yet taken the responsibility of heating.

With the winter in the northern region of the world, the demand for natural gas will increase sharply, and the price of natural gas, which was originally in short supply, will continue to rise. At the same time, it takes time to increase domestic coal supply. The potential of existing production capacity is limited. The new production capacity is "far water can't solve near thirst". The import volume may increase, but the increment is limited. Therefore, after winter, the demand growth should be greater than the supply growth, and the contradiction between power and natural gas supply and demand may become more prominent.

Restricted by the fixed price, the gas company will inevitably lose money in supplying gas to residential users. Therefore, it is judged that the gas shutdown of residential users may occur frequently. Adjusted according to the market price, the price of gas supply to industry and commerce is bound to soar, and the cost pressure of large gas users for sustainable operation is very great. In case of gas shortage, can the electric power fill the position in time and bear the heating responsibility? This undoubtedly makes the difficult electricity market "worse".

4、 What impact will the nationwide power cut-off bring?

The nationwide power cut-off and shutdown will have a long-term impact on China's economic development, people's life and energy policies.

The first is the impact on the economy. The shutdown may continue from the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year. The manufacturing industries in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta are the most affected, and these manufacturing industries are the main force in creating GDP and exports. Considering that China's GDP is positively correlated with power consumption, if the scale of power supply decreases year-on-year, GDP should decline year-on-year, and the negative impact of economic development will last longer.

The second is the impact on investment. The shortage of power supply naturally affects the confidence of enterprises in expanding production and investment. The shutdown of manufacturing enterprises leads to lower income, loss of employees, higher costs and contract failure. Many manufacturing enterprises and even large manufacturing groups may go bankrupt from now on, greatly reducing the investment enthusiasm of manufacturing enterprises.

The third is the impact on the price. The shutdown of manufacturing industry has a wide impact on the industrial supply chain, and the prices of bulk commodities, intermediate products and end products rise in turn, putting great pressure on inflation.

Finally, the impact on people's livelihood. For the manufacturing workers affected by the opening of the gate, the reduction of working hours directly leads to the reduction of income, and there is little compensation for unemployment, which has deeply affected a number of low - and middle-income families.

In addition, the impact on energy policy can not be ignored. The concentrated power cut-off accident is closely related to the national energy policy, planning, implementation, supervision and system. The outbreak of this accident will force the deepening reform of the energy system and the corresponding adjustment of energy policies.

5、 Is there any way to alleviate the shortage of power supply in the near future?

On how to alleviate the current power supply shortage, the economic operation regulation Bureau of the national development and Reform Commission has made corresponding deployment and arrangements for energy supply guarantee this winter and next spring, which are roughly as follows.

First, increase supply. Release and increase domestic coal and natural gas production capacity, and stabilize and increase international imports of coal and natural gas.

Second, lock resources. Ensure medium and long-term contracts for coal and natural gas for power generation and heating.

Third, orderly energy use. Adhere to the principle of ensuring energy supply for people's livelihood, and guide local governments to use energy in a scientific and orderly manner.

Fourth, reserve guarantee. Supervise the safety level of coal storage in the power plant, implement the gas injection progress of gas storage facilities, and ensure the emergency standby and peak shaving capacity.

Fifth, the dredging cost. Ensure that the prices of energy for people's livelihood, agriculture and public welfare are stable, and other prices can be adjusted by the market within the scope of compliance.

Sixth, effective control. We will resolutely curb unreasonable energy demand, especially the "two high" projects.

It should be pointed out that it will take some time to release and increase domestic coal and natural gas production capacity. Whether the import volume can grow stably is affected by many factors. It is difficult to meet all energy demand in the near future. The increase of coal supply can not reduce the price of power coal to less than 600 yuan per ton in the short term.

Therefore, the tension between energy supply and demand may be alleviated in the near future, but the power cut-off, shutdown and shutdown will continue for some time. If the supply cannot increase rapidly and significantly, the spot price of coal cannot be greatly reduced, and the power rationing may continue until next spring.

6、 Is there an optimal solution to the power supply problem?

Comprehensive and long-term solution to the problem of power supply is the core of national energy security, which should be the focus of future energy policy.

First, focus on ensuring the security of energy supply.

China is the largest manufacturing country with a complete manufacturing industry chain. Its cost, efficiency, quality and reputation are the most internationally competitive. This is China's core competitive advantage. However, manufacturing industries are energy consuming industries, and some are high energy consuming industries.

As global demand is increasing, the global manufacturing industry should continue to transfer and converge to China. China's energy consumption is bound to continue to increase and carbon emissions are bound to increase accordingly. However, with the relative reduction of the scale of manufacturing industry in other countries, energy consumption will also be reduced and carbon emissions will be reduced. In other words, the increase in the scale of China's most efficient manufacturing industry can be exchanged for the reduction of energy consumption and carbon emissions in other countries, directly reducing the total global energy consumption and carbon emissions.

As for high energy consuming industries, such as steel, aluminum, cement, petrochemical and other industries, most developing countries, including China, are still in the stage of demand growth. As long as developing countries continue to develop, demand will not fall, just in which country.

If China stops production of these high energy consuming industries, it will inevitably transfer to other countries, and the global energy consumption, pollution and carbon emission will not be reduced. China's high energy consuming industry is also the most globally competitive, and cost efficiency, pollution control and carbon emission treatment can be optimized.

From a global perspective, the high energy consumption and high emissions made in China have made sacrifices and contributions to the global reduction of total energy consumption and carbon emissions. In other words, energy consumption and carbon emissions remain in China. China has increased, but the global total is decreasing.

Therefore, China's energy demand is huge and far from reaching the peak. Countries need to integrate energy resources globally, including coal and oil and natural gas: on the one hand, encourage various investments in overseas energy resources and infrastructure, including coal and oil and natural gas; on the other hand, encourage the signing of medium and long-term supply agreements at an appropriate time to ensure the stable and reliable global energy supply capacity required by China as a global manufacturing center.

Second, ensure the overall stability of energy prices.

International oil and gas prices are mainly controlled by several major oligarchs in the world, namely the US Mexico Canada alliance led by the United States, the OPEC led by Saudi Arabia, and Russia and its affected surrounding oil producing countries. Now, the latter two (OPEC +) form an expanded alliance, and the Biden government cooperates to maintain the relative high price of oil and gas in exchange for the comparative advantage of green energy. To this end, China has to pay hundreds of billions of dollars more each year to import oil and gas.

However, as the largest coal producer and consumer, China has an absolute voice and influence on the global coal price. It can have a secondary impact on the global oil and gas market through its influence on the global coal market.

What is the optimal coal price range?

Taking thermal coal as an example, if 600 yuan per ton is the average profit and loss point of domestic thermal power plants, dynamically controlling the price of thermal coal below 500 yuan per ton is the best choice for China's development. On the one hand, thermal power plants have long-term enthusiasm for power generation, which can ensure the stability of the power market; On the other hand, it can ensure the long-term competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing, including energy consuming industries. On the premise that low-energy and low emission industries such as high-tech, R & D, design, integration, system, brand and education do not have advantages, maintaining the competitive advantage of manufacturing industry is the foundation of national development.

How to dynamically control the price of thermal coal below 500 yuan per ton?

First, liberalize domestic coal mining restrictions and encourage enterprises to increase investment on the premise of safety and environmental protection; Second, encourage Chinese enterprises to invest and distribute energy resources overseas, including coal and oil and gas, and expand global supply capacity; Third, liberalize the international market and encourage the import of traditional energy market. If the market price of thermal coal exceeds 500 yuan per ton, the stored coal must be released urgently to stabilize the market.

If the price of thermal coal is controlled below 500 yuan per ton, China, as the world's largest oil and gas importer, will inevitably affect the international oil and gas price. If the international oil and gas prices are too high, the substitution of coal for oil and gas will inevitably suppress the attempts of international oil and gas giants to jointly reduce production and increase prices.

If the price of thermal coal is controlled below 500 yuan per ton, the average cost of China's terminal power consumption can be controlled between 0.6-0.7 yuan per kilowatt hour, which is not much different from the current average price of power consumption, and the advantages of China's manufacturing industry can continue to be maintained.

The average cost of terminal electricity consumption is controlled between 0.6-0.7 yuan, which does not mean the equalization or fixation of price, but should vigorously promote the marketization of electricity price mechanism, especially interval price, peak and valley price, etc. For example, the low price can be a few cents per kilowatt hour, and the peak price can be two or three yuan. The market price should fully reflect the scarcity of electricity and the difficulty of regulation.

The average terminal cost is stable at 0.6-0.7 yuan per kilowatt hour, or even lower, which can not only curb domestic and even international oil and gas prices, but also encourage renewable energy to control costs. Most importantly, it can ensure sustainable economic development and steady improvement of people's living standards.

Third, continue to deepen the reform of the energy system.

The new energy system should ensure several main objectives: first, the security of energy supply, including total supply and infrastructure; Second, the economy of energy supply, including oil and gas, coal and electricity, new energy, transmission, distribution and transportation, etc; Third, the efficiency of energy use, encourage technological innovation and upgrading, and promote energy conservation in the whole society; Fourth, the safety of the whole energy cycle, including the safety of mining, transportation and use; Fifth, the whole cycle of energy is green, including pollution prevention and control in the whole process of the industry and low-carbon as much as possible.

To this end, a more centralized energy management system is needed. Whether international cooperation is carried out externally or precise control is achieved internally, there should be unified institutional decision-making and implementation, and take responsibility for corresponding problems, rather than the current "Jiulong water control", each striving to seize power. Once there is a problem, they will cooperate with each other